Trend and forecast of measles disease, in East Gojjam Zone, Amhara Region, Northwest Ethiopia, 2023: a crossectional study

Table 1 Comparison of ARIMA models by using their model fit parameter

ARIMA (p, d, q) model	Stationary R²	RMSE	MAPE	Normalized BIC
(3,1,1)	0.726	56.553	211.467	8.845
(3,1,3)	0.761	57.071	242.255	9.173
(3,1,4)	0.784	56.677	158.674	9.314

Bold indicates the comparison of ARIMA (p, d, q) models, the model with the minimum value of the Normalized BIC is considered the best. The minimum value of the Normalized BIC is 8.845, indicating that the ARIMA (3, 1, 1) model is the best among the others. This suggests that this model best fits the data
RMSE Root Mean Square Error, MAPE Mean Absolute Percentage Error

ISSN: 1756-0500